Why Is Your Forecast Variance Still Over 15%?

You know the drill. The board asks for a forecast. You pull numbers from the CRM, triangulate with your regional leads, sprinkle in a little “gut feel” and hit send. A few weeks later, you miss the number - again. Not by much, maybe 10–15%. But enough to make people nervous - again.

Here’s the thing, a little variance used to be acceptable. Now? Not so much.

In today’s capital-efficient climate, where predictability is prized more than growth-at-all-costs, even a 10% miss can feel like a strategic failure. It signals weak control, shaky processes, and a lack of commercial maturity. Boards notice. Investors notice. And you should too.

But let’s be honest. Most B2B tech companies don’t have a forecasting problem, they have a forecasting culture problem - and it starts with a dangerous misconception that forecasts are data-driven. They’re not. They’re behaviour-driven. Data helps, sure. But without the right behaviours: deal inspection, stage discipline and accountability, you’re just forecasting off a spreadsheet of hope.

The most persistent myth in forecasting is that more CRM data equals better accuracy. But most CRMs are graveyards of outdated notes and stage inflation. Lots of reps move lots of deals based on internal pressure, not buyer commitment. Managers skim dashboards without inspecting the deals underneath.

Forecasting shouldn’t be a calendar-driven ritual, it should be a leadership discipline. Yet many companies treat it as a numbers game, assigning the task to Revenue Operations and hoping AI tools will spot the risk. But AI can’t compensate for a lack of accountability. Or coaching. Or stage definitions that mean different things to different teams.

In the companies that get this right, forecasting is a cross-functional operating rhythm owned jointly by sales and finance, and it’s built from the ground up, not the top down.

The problem most sales leaders need to get to grips with is most forecasts still rely on rep-entered probabilities and gut feel. But in high-performing teams, that’s only one signal. It’s cross-checked against historical data, inspected by second-line leaders, and stress-tested weekly in forecast calls that actually dig into the deals.

If your forecast is still swinging by more than 15% each quarter, it’s not just a reporting issue. it’s a strategic one. Investors see forecast control as a proxy for operational maturity. And they’re right to. Because if you can’t predict your revenue with confidence, what else are you getting wrong?

So where do you start? You fix the fundamentals. Redefine your stages based on buyer behaviour, not rep activity. Make deal inspection a habit, not an exception. Coach your managers to challenge assumptions, not just update numbers. And stop treating the forecast as a Revenue Operations deliverable, it’s a leadership obligation.

Because in this market, the one thing worse than missing your number… is not knowing why you missed it.